Accumulator Series: Going With The Gut

Week One

‘The first cut is the deepest, baby I know’

Cat Stevens

Going With The Gut

Most Saturdays excite me; the prospect of a day filled with football excites me. But when I woke last Saturday I was not just filled with excitement but also a feeling of destiny! I believed that my tactic of trusting my gut when putting on that day’s accumulator would work. By the end of the day however, my gut would have caused me indigestion problems and have me reaching for the Yakult.

Method

  1. Go into bookies
  2. Look at the Long List
  3. Chose teams depending on whatever I felt my gut was telling me to do. There was no science to this, I just stared at the games and hoped for inspiration. This inspiration depended on my knowledge of the team’s form, the opposition they played and any “feeling” I had.
  4. Cross my fingers

Teams chosen

ARSENAL to be West Brom at home

EVERTON to beat Fulham away

WATFORD to beat Middlesbrough at home

CHARLTON to beat Dagenham & Redbridge at home

ROCHDALE to beat Plymouth at home

BRADFORD to beat Northampton away

DUNDEE UNITED to beat St Johnston at home

Result

It did not go well.

The graph below shows how my “Hope Mood” went over the course of 90 minutes last Saturday:

It began so well; Watford banged in 3 in twenty minutes and Charlton were one up as well! There was potential for the day to be incredible!

Although Plymouth were beating Rochdale and Dagenham & Redbridge had equalised against Charlton hope was still high! Things could turn around for those two teams and my hope let me believe that my other teams were going to stick a few in as well!

Then came the second half of my games and from then on everything can be summed up in three words: West Bromwich Albion.

West Brom scored against Arsenal and I just knew that the flood gates opened…what didn’t help was that they quickly scored another two! If you refer to the graph above you can see that from the moment they first score (50th minute) until the end there is a very steep drop in my Hope Mood. I had been beaten.

By the end of the day only two results had gone my way; Watford won 3-1 and Dundee United beat St Johnston thanks to a sixty-first minute goal from David Goodwillie.

ARSENAL 2-3 WEST BROM

FULHAM 0-0 EVERTON

WATFORD 3-1 MIDDLESBROUGH

CHARLTON 2-2 DAGENHAM & REDBRIDGE

ROCHDALE 1 -1 PLYMOUTH

NORTHAMPTON 2-0 BRADFORD

DUNDEE UNITED 1-0 ST JOHNSTON

Potential Improvements

Looking through the results a few things jump out at me:

  1. I should bet on draws.
  2. I should stay clear of betting on Arsenal as it just depresses me watching my team lose the game and my money.
  3. In the darkest moments there is always a slim bit of hope from a Goodwillie.

Next Time:

The Wacky Accy

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About danbunker

I watch too much sport.
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