The Accumulator Series: The Form Guide

Week Five

This weekend may be an international weekend but there are League One and League Two games going on. For this reason, follow this latest accumulator blog closely and you just learn a thing or two…

‘Shit just got real’

Martin Lawrence, Bad Boys 2

The Form Guide

So far we’ve done four other accumulator blogs, all with the same outcome; a loss. When I decided to do this I thought ‘Yeah, it’ll be funny but there will be one that pays out so everything will be fine’; 20 quid later (plus all the other pennies I spent and didn’t blog about) I am yet to conquer an official OptaJoke accumulator. So this week; I WANT TO WIN.

I now know how Scunthorpe feel; they’ve lost 12 out of their last 18 league games and I’m tired of losing. The trouble is the difference between me and Scunthorpe is they’ve won 4 games…I’ve won none. In order to overcome this, I decided to pick by teams by choosing those whose form was comparable to mine: shit.

THE FORM GUIDES

Method

  1. Research teams.
  2. Choose the teams with the worst form in each of the divisions.
  3. Bet on these teams to lose.
  4. Let a feeling of hope wash over me.
  5. Believe.

Teams chosen

BLACKBURN to beat Blackpool at home

IPSWICH to beat Scunthorpe at home

BRIGHTON to beat Oldham away

BRADFORD to beat Northampton at home

Before these games got underway, I honestly thought that I’d cracked it this time…

Result

The theory behind this week’s accumulator was fundamentally fine; if a team is in terrible form then there is no reason why this form would not continue.

  • Blackpool had lost 4 of the last 6 games and specifically had lost their last 4 away games before the game last Saturday.
  • Scunthorpe had lost 5 of their last 6 games and 6 of the last 6 away games.
  • Oldham had lost 5 of their last 6 games and 3 of 6 home games.
  • Northampton had lost 4 of their last 6 games, 3 of their last 6 home games AND not won a game since the beginning of February.

Soon after these games kicked off I realised something; there could be a wounded animal syndrome going on. By this I meant that each of the teams when faced with an opponent they would try and cause as much damage as possible and not go down without a fight.

Bradford scored early on for me, which was great; Jake Speight converted a pen on 8. Such poetry like that seemed almost like fate was looking favourably on me!

However, sure as grapes are grapes and oranges are oranges; Tangerines are twats and they arrived to mess up the apple cart.

Blackpool were awarded a dodgy penalty on the 25th minute mark; Charlie Adam netted it and then swiftly followed up four minutes later with a free kick. What I failed to factor in was that when picking the teams with awful form; make sure the team they play aren’t on the similar form (Blackburn had also lost 4 of their last 6 games).

In the middle of Charlie Adam putting a massive dip in my hope mood, Ipswich had scored and so I went into half time feeling relatively positive; Blackpool could throw it away…hope was whispering in my ear that they could.

My hope was rewarded when Christopher Samba scored soon after half time and Ipswich got a second; were my flood of defeats about to be stopped?! Well…the next time you’re faced with a flood, don’t use Northampton Town’s Goalkeeper Chris Dunn to plug it; he was useless at stopping Bradford City’s penalty on the hour mark.

The last half hour went by fairly slowly (as it tends to do when you’re praying for teams to score), Brighton scored in the 67th minute and hope began to climb but as the clock went past the 80 minute mark I knew that things wouldn’t be going my way…again.

Although Blackburn scored in the 93rd minute it didn’t help, fate had once against triumphed over hope (this week the role of fate was played by Charlie Adam and the role of hope by Chris Dunn).

Here’s the Hope Mood graph for this week:

BLACKBURN 2 BLACKPOOL 2

IPSWICH 2 SCUNTHORPE 0

OLDHAM 0 BRIGHTON 1

BRADFORD 1 NORTHAMPTON 1

Just the 2 results right this week; things are staying pretty consistent…but that’s not a good thing when you’re consistently losing.

Potential Improvements

Looking through the results a few things jump out at me:

  1. Study the opposing team form…it helps.
  2. Be afraid of wounded animals…or Cobblers…or fruit.
  3. Be wary of a team that’s basically named after an underdeveloped orange.

Next Time:

We’re getting to the “business end” of the season…like many football clubs I’m currently running at a heavy loss. In order to combat this it’s time to get serious; it’s time to trust the “experts”.

The next accumulator is: The Pundits Accumulator

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About danbunker

I watch too much sport.
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